SAN DIEGO, California, October 24, 2008 (ENS) – A gas used in manufacture of flat panel televisions, computer displays, microcircuits, and thin-film solar panels is 17,000 times more potent a greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide, and it is far more prevalent in the atmosphere than previously estimated.

The powerful greenhouse gas nitrogen trifluoride, NF3, is at least four times more widespread than scientists had believed, according to new research by a team at Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California, San Diego.

Using new analytical techniques, a team led by Scripps geochemistry professor Ray Weiss made the first atmospheric measurements of nitrogen trifluoride, NF3.

“Accurately measuring small amounts of NF3 in air has proven to be a very difficult experimental problem, and we are very pleased to have succeeded in this effort,” Weiss said Thursday, announcing the results of his team’s research.

The research findings will be published October 31 in “Geophysical Research Letters,” a journal of the American Geophysical Union.

Scripps geoscientists Ray Weiss, left, and Jens
Muehle show cylinders used to collect air
samples that they analyzed for
concentrations of nitrogen trifluoride.
(Photo courtesy Scripps Institution of
Oceanography, UC San Diego)

The amount of the gas in the atmosphere, which could not be detected using previous techniques, had been estimated at less than 1,200 metric tons in 2006. The new research shows the actual amount was 4,200 metric tons.

In 2008, about 5,400 metric tons of the gas was in the atmosphere, a quantity that is increasing at about 11 percent per year.

This rate of increase means that about 16 percent of the amount of the gas produced globally is being emitted into the atmosphere, the researchers estimate.

Emissions of NF3 were thought to be so low that the gas was not considered to be a significant potential contributor to global warming.

Nitrogen trifluoride was not covered by the Kyoto Protocol, the 1997 agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions signed by 182 countries, although three other fluoride compounds are covered.

The protocol governs the emissions of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide as well as other fluoride compounds – sulfur hexafluoride, hydrofluorocarbons, and perfluorocarbons.

In response to the growing use of the gas and concerns that its emissions are not well known, the scientists have recommended adding it to the list of greenhouse gases regulated by the protocol or its successor agreement now under negotiation.

“From a climate perspective, there is a need to add NF3 to the suite of greenhouse gases whose production is inventoried and whose emissions are regulated under the Kyoto Protocol, thus providing meaningful incentives for its wise use,” said Weiss.

Nitrogen trifluoride is one of several gases used during the manufacture of liquid crystal flat-panel displays, thin-film photovoltaic cells and microcircuits.

Many industries have used the gas in recent years as an alternative to perfluorocarbons, which are also potent greenhouse gases, because it was believed that no more than two percent of the NF3 used in these processes escaped into the atmosphere.

To obtain their information, the Scripps team analyzed air samples gathered in California and Tasmania over the past 30 years by the NASA-funded Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment network of ground-based stations.

The network was created in the 1970s in response to international concerns about chemicals depleting the ozone layer. It is supported by NASA as part of its congressional mandate to monitor ozone-depleting trace gases, many of which are also greenhouse gases.

The researchers found concentrations of NF3 rose from about 0.02 parts per trillion in 1978 to 0.454 parts per trillion in 2008.

Higher concentrations of NF3 were found in the Northern Hemisphere than in the Southern Hemisphere, which the researchers said is consistent with its greater use in Northern Hemisphere countries.

“This result reinforces the critical importance of basic research in determining the overall impact of the information technology industry on global climate change, which has already been estimated to be equal to that of the aviation industry,” said Larry Smarr, director of the California Institute for Telecommunications at University of California, San Diego, who was not involved in the Scripps study.

Michael Prather is a University of California, Irvine atmospheric chemist who predicted earlier this year that based on the rapidly increasing use of NF3, larger amounts of the gas would be found in the atmosphere. Prather said the new Scripps study provides the confirmation needed to establish reporting requirements for production and use of the gas.

“I’d say case closed. It is now shown to be an important greenhouse gas,” said Prather, who was not involved with the Scripps study. “Now we need to get hard numbers on how much is flowing through the system, from production to disposal.”

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SAN DIEGO, California, July 16, 2008 (ENS) – The University of California-San Diego calls itself “one of the nation’s greenest college campuses,” and to enhance that status, the university has begun to install the components of a multi-faceted sustainable energy program.

The university will soon be generating 7.4 megawatts of green energy, providing 10 to 15 percent of its own annual electrical usage.

The far-reaching program, which includes solar panels, biogas fuel cells and wind energy, began with the first installation of solar photovoltaic panels atop a campus utility plant.

Soon, buildings and parking garages across the 1,200-acre campus next to the Pacific Ocean will feature solar panels.

Workers install solar panels on a roof
at the University of California-San
Diego. (Photo courtesyUC-San Diego)

UC San Diego’s green energy capacity will eventually produce 29 million kilowatt hours a year, which is enough to provide electricity for more than 4,500 homes a year.

The amount of renewable energy is like removing 10,500 tons of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere each year, or removing 1,500 cars a year from the roads.

“This photovoltaic installation marks an historic event for a campus that has become a living laboratory for climate change solutions,” said Steve Relyea, vice chancellor of business affairs.

“Our sustainable energy program is the result of a campuswide commitment by students, faculty and administration to advance environmental sustainability on a local, national and global level,” he said.

This year the Scripps Institution of Oceanography at UC San Diego is celebrating the 50th anniversary of the Keeling Curve, the first measurement of greenhouse gas build-up, which was conducted by Scripps scientist Charles David Keeling.

Researchers and students at UC San Diego are working on a wide range of environmental sustainability projects. They are developing biofuels from algae and wood debris.

Planners design green dorms with automatic sun shading to save energy and drainage systems that stop all storm runoff from flowing into the nearby ocean.

Students and fleet managers have begun a biofuel shuttle bus line, which decreases UC San Diego’s reliance on greenhouse gas-generating fossil fuels.

The world’s top climate change researchers and post-docs are working to discover the impact of Asian brown cloud pollution on global climate and of rising temperatures on the western U.S. water supply.

UC San Diego’s green energy program will continue to unfold over the next year, as the first megawatt of solar photovoltaic panels is constructed and a second megawatt is planned and implemented.

Construction begins this fall on a project that will allow UC San Diego to produce another 2.4 megawatts of energy from fuel cells powered by renewable methane. The methane fuel will be transported to UC San Diego from the Point Loma sewage treatment plant, where it is produced.

Not only does this produce green energy that replaces carbon-based energy, but it also removes pollutants from local air, since the methane is currently flared into the atmosphere at the sewage plant.

UC San Diego also begins a unique program to swap fossil fuel-generated energy for wind power.

The university will throttle back its natural gas-powered cogeneration plant at night and replace the power with electricity purchased from California wind farms.

This project, the first of its kind in California, will generate up to three megawatts of green energy.

The solar photovoltaic and biogas fuel cell construction projects are cost-free for the university.

UC San Diego has negotiated power purchase agreements, in which investors construct, install and maintain the photovoltaic panels and fuel cells on campus property, and the university then buys the power from investors through long-term contracts.

UC San Diego has teamed up with local, national and international companies on its sustainable energy project.

Three partners are working with the university on the solar photovoltaic project. Borrego Solar, Inc., a national solar power contractor based in El Cajon, California, is the installer; Envision Solar, Inc., of San Diego is the designer of the solar “trees” that will be built on top of UC San Diego parking structures. Solar Power Partners Inc., of Mill Valley is the financier and owner of the solar photovoltaic arrays.

The biogas fuel cells are financed, constructed and owned by The Linde Group, an international industrial gases and engineering company.

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SAN DIEGO, California, May 7, 2008 (ENS) – Using advanced unmanned aircraft, research scientists at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego are assessing Southern California’s potential for climate change and better understand the sources of air pollution.

The aircraft typically fly in formations of three, measuring a range of properties such as the quantity and size of the aerosols on which cloud droplets form and the temperature, humidity and the intensity of light that permeates clouds and masses of smog as they go.

The scientists are flying these autonomous unmanned aerial vehicles, AUAVs, from Edwards Air Force Base near Rosamond, California. The study began its first sortie of data-gathering flights on April 2 and will continue through January 2009, offering researchers a chance to view seasonal variations in air pollution.

Known by one of the few acronyms that uses another acronym as one of its letters, the California AUAV Air Pollution Profiling Study, CAPPS, dispatches the AUAVs to fly through clouds and aerosol masses in Southern California, gathering meteorological data.

Scripps Atmospheric and Climate Sciences Professor Veerabhadran Ramanathan, CAPPS’s lead scientist, said Southern California’s dry weather and tendency to trap rather than export smog could make it highly prone to climate change consequences such as accelerated snowmelt and dimming at ground level.

“These monthly UAV flights will provide unprecedented data for evaluating how long range transport of pollutants including ozone, soot and other particulates from the northwest United States, Canada, east Asia and Mexico mix with local pollution and influence our air quality and regional climate including the early melting of snow packs,” said Ramanathan.

V. Ramanathan with three of the unmanned
drone aircraft in the Maldives (Photo
courtesy Scripps Institution of
Oceanography/UCSD)

Ramanathan’s team revolutionized the gathering of atmospheric data in 2006 when the researchers first successfully deployed the unmanned high-tech aircraft in the Maldives AUAV Campaign. It was the first time such comprehensive measurements were made at a cost that was very low relative to traditional manned flights.

The Scripps researchers have used data from the Maldives and other field campaigns to observe that a pervasive mass of air pollution in south and east Asia, often referred to as the “atmospheric brown cloud,” can disrupt rainfall patterns and cause cooling at ground level but warming at higher altitudes.

The cloud typically contains a mix of dust, sulfates and soot and other forms of black carbon – the products of diesel combustion, agricultural biomass burning, use of wood-burning and cow dung-burning stoves in rural homes and the use of coal in home heating.

Ramanathan and his team linked the brown cloud to an observed acceleration of glacial melt in the Himalayas. Himalayan glaciers provide billions of people in Asia with their drinking water.

The CAPPS chief scientist dreams of launching a fleet of drone aircraft to patrol the skies.

In the California AUAV Air Pollution Profiling Study, the Scripps team hopes to determine how much of Southern California’s air pollution comes from Asia, Mexico and from regions north of the state.

“Black carbon and ozone are two major contributors to global warming, next to carbon dioxide,” said Ramanathan. “We hope to document the vertical profiles of black carbon and ozone and their climate warming effects for the first time over California, and this data will likely help California reduce its global warming commitment.”

The California Energy Commission’s Public Interest Energy Research program will employ CAPPS results in an analysis of the potential future economic and ecological consequences of Southern California air pollution.

Scientists also hope to combine CAPPS results with satellite data to better understand the role of aerosols at a larger regional scale.

“As we learn more about the air we breathe and seek solutions to reduce greenhouse gases, this important atmospheric research will help us address the serious challenges to California’s water resources, ecology, and the health of our residents,” said Energy Commissioner Arthur Rosenfeld. “With this study, California continues to demonstrate its commitment as a national leader in climate change research.”

The aircraft will profile atmospheric conditions at altitudes ranging between 2,000 and 12,000 feet and will create a separate file for data collected during wildfires.

Because of Federal Aviation Administration regulations that prohibit unmanned aircraft from flying in public airspace, the flight paths will be limited to military airspace, which is exempted from FAA rules.

The Scripps team hopes to conduct the flights at least once a month or as often as every two weeks.

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SAN DIEGO, California, March 11, 2008 (ENS) – The growth in China’s emissions of the primary greenhouse gas carbon dioxide, CO2, is far greater than previous estimates, making the goal of stabilizing atmospheric greenhouse gases much more difficult, finds a new analysis by economists at the University of California.

The authors of the study, Maximillian Auffhammer, UC Berkeley assistant professor of agricultural and resource economics, and Richard Carson, UC San Diego professor of economics, based their findings upon pollution data from China’s 30 provincial entities.

Auffhammer said the study should serve as an alarm challenging the belief that actions taken by the wealthy, industrialized nations alone represent a viable strategy towards the goal of stabilizing atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide.

“Making China and other developing countries an integral part of any future climate agreement is now even more important,” said Auffhammer.

“It had been expected that the efficiency of China’s power generation would continue to improve as per capita income increased, slowing down the rate of CO2 emissions growth,” he said.

The Jinzhushan coal-fired power plant
in China’s Hunan province (Photo
courtesy Hunan Datang Xianyi
Technology Co Ltd)

“What we’re finding instead is that the emissions growth rate is surpassing our worst expectations,” he said, “and that means the goal of stabilizing atmospheric CO2 is going to be much, much harder to achieve.”

Previous estimates, including those used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, say the region that includes China will see a 2.5 to five percent annual increase in CO2 emissions between 2004 and 2010.

The new University of California analysis puts that annual growth rate for China to at least 11 percent for the same time period.

Based upon these findings, the authors say current global warming forecasts are “overly optimistic,” and that action is urgently needed to curb greenhouse gas production in China and other rapidly industrializing countries.

The study is scheduled for print publication in the May issue of the “Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,” but is now online.

The researchers’ most conservative forecast predicts that by 2010, there will be an increase of 600 million metric tons of carbon emissions in China over the country’s levels in 2000. This growth from China alone would dramatically overshadow the 116 million metric tons of carbon emissions reductions pledged by all the developed countries in the Kyoto Protocol.

The protocol was never ratified in the United States, which was the largest single emitter of carbon dioxide until 2006, when China became the largest emitter.

The projected annual increase in China alone over the next several years is greater than the current emissions produced by either Great Britain or Germany.

Researchers traditionally calculate the CO2 emissions for a region or country from data on fossil fuel consumption. Existing models then use those emission figures and factor in such variables as population size, a society’s affluence and technology developments to forecast the growth of greenhouse gas emissions.

The Shentou-2 coal-fired power plant
in China’s Shanxi province (Photo
courtesy Skoda Export)

In explaining the startling differences in results from previous estimates for China’s carbon emissions growth, the UC researchers point out that they used province-level figures in their analysis to obtain a more detailed picture of the country’s CO2 emissions up to 2004.

“Everybody had been treating China as single country, but each of the country’s provinces is larger than many European countries, both in geographic size and population,” said Carson.

“In addition, there is a wide range in economic development and wealth from one province to the next, as well as major differences in population growth, all of which has an effect on energy consumption that cannot be easily addressed in models based upon aggregate national data,” he said.

Since data on fossil fuel consumption is not reported at the province level in China, the researchers used waste gas emissions, available from China’s state environmental protection administration reports, as a proxy for CO2 emissions in this paper.

Moreover, the researchers said, the majority of other studies forecasting China’s CO2 emissions relied upon information from nearly a decade ago. During the 1990s, per capita income was growing faster than the use of energy in China, which typically relates to slower growth in carbon emissions.

“A notable shift occurred in China around the year 2000, around the time when hope for an agreement with the U.S. on the Kyoto Protocol began to diminish along with external pressure for China to reduce its emissions,” said Carson. “Energy use started to grow faster than income, and much of the energy that was used wasn’t efficient.”

The authors also pointed out that after 2000, China’s central government began shifting the responsibility for building new power plants to provincial officials who had less incentive and fewer resources to build cleaner, more efficient plants, which save money in the long run but are more expensive to construct.

“Government officials turned away from energy efficiency as an objective to expanding power generation as quickly as they can, and as cheaply as they can,” said Carson. “Wealthier coastal provinces tended to build clean-burning power plants based upon the very best technology available, but many of the poorer interior provinces replicated inefficient 1950s Soviet technology.”

“The problem is that power plants, once built, are meant to last for 40 to 75 years,” said Carson. “These provincial officials have locked themselves into a long-run emissions trajectory that is much higher than people had anticipated. Our forecast incorporates the fact that much of China is now stuck with power plants that are dirty and inefficient.”

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