BOULDER, Colorado, October 9, 2008 (ENS) – Wildfires can hike ozone pollution to levels that violate U.S. public health and environmental standards, new research has determined.

The study by scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research focused on California wildfires in 2007, finding that they repeatedly caused ground-level ozone to spike to unhealthy levels across a broad area, including much of rural California as well as neighboring Nevada.

Fires worsen ozone levels by releasing nitrogen oxides and hydrocarbons, which can form ozone near the fire or far downwind as a result of chemical reactions in sunlight.

The study was published today in “Geophysical Research Letters.” It was funded by NASA and by the National Science Foundation, which sponsors NCAR.

Blaze at night on the Panther Fire
in north central California, August 6,
2008. (Photo by Art Gonzales)

“It’s important to understand the health impacts of wildfires,” says NCAR scientist Gabriele Pfister, the lead author. “Ozone can hit unhealthy levels even in places where people don’t see smoke.”

Although scientists have long known that wildfires can affect air quality by emitting particles and gases into the air, there has been little research to quantify the impacts.

The researchers, using a combination of computer models and ground-level measurements, studied intense California wildfires that broke out in September and October of 2007. They found that ozone was three times more likely to violate safe levels when fire plumes blew into a region than when no plumes were present.

At the time of the wildfires, the public health standard for ozone set by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency was 0.08 parts per million over an eight-hour period.

The EPA has since tightened the standard to 0.075 parts per million. Under the stricter standard, the number of violations would have nearly doubled.

While ozone in the stratosphere benefits life on Earth by blocking ultraviolet radiation from the Sun, ozone in the lower atmosphere can trigger health problems.

These range from coughing and throat irritation to more serious problems, such as aggravation of asthma, bronchitis, and emphysema. Ground-level ozone pollution also damages crops and other plants.

“Wildfires are expected to worsen in the future, especially as our climate grows warmer,” Pfister says. “But we are only now beginning to understand their potential impacts on people and ecosystems, not only nearby but also potentially far downwind.”

The unhealthy levels of ozone the researchers detected occurred mostly in rural areas. This finding may be a result of the computer modeling, which lacked the fine detail to zoom in on relatively compact urban areas.

But the authors also speculate that wildfire emissions have a greater impact on ozone levels in the countryside than on cities.

They say cities tend to have more nitrogen dioxide, a pollutant that can, at high levels, reduce the efficiency with which ozone is produced or even destroy ozone.

“The impact of wildfires on ozone in suburban and rural areas, far from urban sources of pollution, was quite noticeable,” says NCAR scientist Christine Wiedinmyer, a co-author of the paper.

The paper notes that ozone levels would likely have been even greater except that Santa Ana winds in October blew wildfire plumes over the Pacific Ocean, safely away from populated areas.

To measure the impact of the fires on ozone formation, the researchers used a pair of computer models developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research.

With the first one, a specialized fire model, they estimated the amount of vegetation burned and resulting emissions of nitrous oxides, sulfur dioxide, and other pollutants.

Those results went into a global air chemistry model that simulated the movement of the emissions and tracked the resulting formation of ozone as the fire plumes spread downwind.

The scientists verified the accuracy of their modeling results by comparing them with ozone measurements from a network of EPA ground stations at various sites in California.

This also allowed them to determine both the number of ozone violations and the extent to which the wildfires contributed to those violations.

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BOULDER, Colorado, October 1, 2008 (ENS) – When pine bark beetles kill trees, scientists believe they may also alter local weather patterns and air quality. For the next four years researchers will study forests from southern Wyoming to northern New Mexico to determine the precise relationship between the beetles, the trees they kill and the atmosphere.

A new international field project, led by scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, is exploring how trees killed by the beetles influence rainfall, temperatures, smog and other aspects of the atmosphere.

“Forests help control the atmosphere, and there’s a big difference between the impacts of a living forest and a dead forest,” says NCAR scientist Alex Guenther, a principal investigator on the project. “With a dead forest, we may get different rainfall patterns, for example.”

Preliminary computer modeling suggests that beetle kill can lead to temporary temperature increases of between two and four degrees Fahrenheit. This is partly because of a lack of foliage to reflect the Sun’s heat back into space.

Beetle kill stimulates trees to release more particles and chemicals into the atmosphere as they try to fight off the insects, Guenther says. This worsens air quality, at least initially, by increasing levels of ground-level ozone and particulate matter.

The mountain pine beetle, Dendroctonus ponderosae, is a species of bark beetle native to the forests of western North America from Mexico to central British Columbia and Alberta.

Forests in Colorado, Wyoming, and South Dakota are experiencing bark beetle epidemics at a historically unprecedented scale, according to the U.S. Forest Service. A plan by the Service to deal with the beetles will log, burn, or spray 104,000 acres of lodgepole pines in the Rocky Mountain Region by 2011.

Researchers from the Canadian Forest Service have studied the relationship between the carbon cycle and forest fires, logging and tree deaths. They conclude that by 2020 the pine beetle outbreak will have released 270 megatonnes of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere from Canadian forests.

The NCAR project, known as BEACHON for Bio-hydro-atmosphere interactions of Energy, Aerosols, Carbon, H2O, Organics and Nitrogen, is funded by the National Science Foundation, NCAR’s sponsor.

BEACHON will allow scientists to gain insights into cloud formation, climate change, and the cycling of gases and particles between the land and the atmosphere, according to Cliff Jacobs, program director in NSF’s Division of Atmospheric Sciences.

The exchange of gases and particles between the surface and the atmosphere is critical in arid areas such as the western United States. Guenther says even slight changes in precipitation can impact the region.

The red on this map of Wyoming,
Colorado and South Dakota shows
areas of pine bark beetle infestation.
(Map courtesy U.S. Forest Service)

“Here in the western United States, it is particularly important to understand these subtle impacts on precipitation,” Guenther says. “Rain and snow may become even more scarce in the future as the climate changes, and the growing population wants ever more water.”

Researchers will use aircraft as well as towers that reach above the forest canopy to measure emissions at 100 feet above the ground.

Additional data will come from soil and moisture sensors, instruments for gases and tiny particles, radars, and lidars, which are radar-like devices that use light instead of radio waves.

“BEACHON will give us a very comprehensive picture of a forest’s impact on the atmosphere,” Guenther says. “But at this point, we don’t know what the project will reveal. We may end up with more questions than answers.”

Organizations participating in the project include Colorado College, Colorado State University, Cornell University, Texas A&M University, and the universities of Colorado, Idaho, Minnesota, New Hampshire, and Washington, as well as the U.S. Forest Service, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, and universities in Austria, France and Japan.

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WASHINGTON, DC, August 25, 2008 (ENS) – Eight of the top American organizations responsible for weather and climate science and education are calling on the next administration and Congress to better protect the United States from severe weather events and climate change by investing in the basics of better science.

They issued five recommendations to reverse declining budgets and provide needed tools, information, and leadership to decision makers. Topping the list is a request to fully fund the nation’s Earth observing system from satellite and ground-based instruments as recommended by the National Research Council.

The plan is estimated to cost roughly $9 billion above the current federal investments being planned for 2010 through 2014.

“Given the costs of weather and climate disasters, we believe these are wise and critical investments,” says John Snow, co-chair of the Weather Coalition and dean of the College of Atmospheric and Geographic Sciences at the University of Oklahoma.

The recommendations and supporting information were provided Thursday in a transition briefing document to both the presidential campaigns.

“Our concern is that our nation is not prepared for severe weather or climate change because of declining budgets and lack of attention to these threats over the past few years,” says Jack Fellows, vice president of the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, UCAR, a consortium of more than 70 universities offering doctorate degrees in the atmospheric sciences.

The owner of this repair shop in
Newtonia, Missouri looks for recoverable
items after a powerful tornado ripped
through southwest Missouri May 10,
2008. (Photo by Michael Raphael
courtesy FEMA)

“We should improve our ability to respond to severe weather events and prepare for the impacts of climate change that will undoubtedly occur over the next several decade,” Fellows said.

UCAR manages the National Center for Atmospheric Research and the UCAR Office of Programs to provide member institutions and affiliates with state-of-the-art instrumentation, aircraft, and computer technology to advance the study of Earth’s atmosphere.

“Decision makers need information on how climate change will affect their local areas,” he said, “but we are hampered by a lack of funding, observations, and computing power to provide information at this local level.”

The eight organizations that wrote the document are UCAR, the American Meteorological Society, the American Geophysical Union, the Weather Coalition, the Consortium of Universities for the Advancement of Hydrologic Science, the National Association of State Universities and Land-Grant Colleges, the Consortium for Ocean Leadership, and the Alliance for Earth Observations.

Collectively they represent thousands of scientists, technology specialists, public policy analysts, and other experts.

This year the United States has been battered by a record number of tornadoes, severe floods, and wildfires.

The briefing document reminds the candidates that tornadoes are forming at a record-setting pace this year, with nearly 1,000 twisters confirmed by NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center for the period January through May 2008.

And every year, the scientists point out, the country sustains billions of dollars in losses from disasters related to weather and climate, such as hurricanes, tornadoes, forest fires, floods, droughts, and snow storms.

“With more than a quarter of the U.S. gross national product – over $2 trillion – sensitive to weather and climate events, these events substantially impact our national health, safety, economy, environment, transportation systems, and military readiness,” the briefing document states. “All 50 states are impacted by these events, and many of these events will be exacerbated by climate change.”

The organizations say that spending more now on satellites, scientific instruments, and research will better protect Americans from the effects of global warming and the severe weather events it will bring in the future.

The five recommendations of the eight scientific organizations are:

1. Observations. Fully fund the nation’s Earth observing system from satellite and ground-based instruments as recommended by the National Research Council.

2. Computing. Greatly increase computing power available for weather and climate research, predictions, and related applications.

3. Research and Modeling. Support a broad fundamental and applied research program in Earth sciences and related fields to advance present understanding of weather and climate and their impacts on society.

4. Societal Relevance. Support education, training, and communication efforts to use the observations, models, and application tools for the maximum benefit to society.

5. Leadership and Management. Implement effective leadership, management, and evaluation approaches to ensure these investments are done in the best interest of the nation.

The full transition document, “Making Our Nation Resilient to Severe Weather and Climate Change,” can be found at www.ucar.edu/td. It provides detailed implementation guidance, including specific management actions, budget estimates, and recommendations for nominations of leaders to serve in the next administration.

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WASHINGTON, DC, May 28, 2008 (ENS) – Forests in the interior western United States, the southwest, and Alaska are already being affected by climate change with increases in the size and frequency of forest fires, insect outbreaks and tree mortality. These changes are expected to continue, according to a new report issued Thursday by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program.

The Climate Change Science Program integrates the federal research efforts of 13 agencies on global change change. The U.S. Department of Agriculture, USDA, is the lead agency for this report and coordinated its production.

The report describes the effects of climate change on agriculture, land resources, water resources, and biodiversity in the United States.

“The report issued today provides practical information that will help land owners and resource managers make better decisions to address the risks of climate change,” said Joe Glauber, chief economist with the the USDA.

The report was written by 38 authors from universities, national laboratories, nongovernmental organizations, and federal agencies. It was subject to peer review by 14 scientists through a Federal Advisory Committee formed by the USDA. The National Center for Atmospheric Research assisted in coordinating production of the report.

The report concludes that climate change is already affecting U.S. water resources, agriculture, land resources, and biodiversity, and will continue to do so.

Much of the United States has experienced higher precipitation and streamflow, with decreased drought severity and duration, over the 20th century. The West and Southwest, however, are notable exceptions, and increased drought conditions have occurred in these regions.

There is a trend toward reduced mountain snowpack and earlier spring snowmelt runoff in the western United States, the report finds.

A continuation of the trend toward increased water use efficiency could help mitigate the impacts of climate change on water resources, the authors advise.

The growing season has increased by 10 to 14 days over the last 19 years across the temperate latitudes. Species’ distributions have also shifted.

Barley harvest in Washington state’s
Palouse Hills. (Photo courtesy USDA)

Grain and oilseed crops will mature more rapidly, but increasing temperatures will increase the risk of crop failures, particularly if precipitation decreases or becomes more variable.

Higher temperatures will negatively affect livestock. Warmer winters will reduce mortality but this will be more than offset by greater mortality in hotter summers. Hotter temperatures will also result in reduced productivity of livestock and dairy animals.

Weeds grow more rapidly under conditions of elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide, CO2, the main greenhouse gas emitted by burning fossil fuels. Under projections reported in the assessment, weeds migrate northward and are less sensitive to herbicide applications.

Horticultural crops such as tomato, onion, and fruit are more sensitive to climate change than grains and oilseed crops.

Invasion by exotic grass species into arid lands will result from climate change, causing an increased fire frequency. Rivers and riparian systems in arid lands will be negatively impacted.

But not all plants will experience negative effects as the climate warms. Young forests on fertile soils will achieve higher productivity from elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Nitrogen deposition and warmer temperatures will increase productivity in other types of forests where water is available.

The rapid rates of warming in the Arctic observed in recent decades, and projected for at least the next century, are dramatically reducing the snow and ice covers that provide denning and foraging habitat for polar bears, the report finds. The U.S. Department of the Interior earlier this month declared the polar bear to be Threatened under the Endangered Species Act.

Agencies within the USDA already are responding to the risks of climate change, the report states, saying, “For example, the Forest Service is incorporating climate change risks into National Forest Management Plans and is providing guidance to forest managers on how to respond and adapt to climate change.”

The Natural Resources Conservation Service and Farm Services Agency are encouraging actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and increase carbon sequestration through conservation programs.

The USDA’s Risk Management Agency has prepared tools to manage drought risks and is conducting an assessment of the risks of climate change on the crop insurance program.

The report, “Synthesis and Assessment Product 4.3 (SAP 4.3): The Effects of Climate Change on Agriculture, Land Resources, Water Resources, and Biodiversity in the United States,” is posted on the Climate Change Science Program website. To access it, click here [www.climatescience.gov].

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